Here’s a bold statement: Nathan MacKinnon is the undisputed king of even-strength play in hockey. But here’s where it gets controversial—while Connor McDavid often steals the spotlight as the best overall player, MacKinnon’s dominance at even strength is so overwhelming that it demands a closer look. Let’s dive in.
Sports thrive on debates, and hockey is no exception. For years, McDavid has been crowned the world’s best player, a title even MacKinnon himself has acknowledged—unless he’s advocating for his teammate Cale Makar. Yet, when it comes to even-strength play, the debate vanishes. MacKinnon stands alone, and the numbers prove it.
During Colorado’s commanding 5-1 win in Anaheim, MacKinnon hit not one but two monumental milestones. The first, his 100th point of the season, came in just his 59th game—the fastest in Avalanche history. This marks his fourth consecutive season surpassing the 100-point mark, a testament to his consistency. But it’s the second milestone that truly highlights his even-strength prowess: the 100th even-strength goal scored by the Avalanche this season with MacKinnon on the ice. And this is the part most people miss—Colorado has outscored opponents 100-37 with him on the ice at even strength. Yes, you read that right: 100-37.
To put this in perspective, the next closest players are Makar (85) and Martin Necas (82), followed by Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov (81). MacKinnon’s plus-63 goal differential is 29 goals better than Kucherov’s plus-34, another MVP contender. Even McDavid’s even-strength differential with Edmonton is a modest plus-10 (78-68). Is this enough to shift the MVP conversation?
MacKinnon’s impact isn’t just a one-season wonder. Since the start of the 2023-24 season, the Avalanche have outscored opponents 322-187 at even strength with him on the ice—a staggering plus-135. The closest competitor? Makar at plus-87. This means the Avalanche are 39% better with MacKinnon on the ice than any other team is with their best player at even strength over the past three seasons. That’s not just a gap—it’s a canyon.
What makes this even more remarkable is the historical context. Since 2007, when advanced statistics became publicly available, no player had been on the ice for 100 even-strength goals in a season until recently. MacKinnon is on pace to shatter the modern record, potentially reaching 137 even-strength goals with him on the ice this season. And defensively, the Avalanche are just as dominant, allowing only 37 goals against—a statistic that hasn’t been seen since the 1980s.
But here’s the counterpoint: Colorado’s abysmal power play has cost MacKinnon valuable points and the team crucial wins. If the Avalanche had an average power play, MacKinnon would likely have 10-12 more points, the team would have 3-4 more wins, and the MVP debate would be a no-brainer. Does this mean the power play is holding him back from broader recognition?
MacKinnon’s even-strength dominance is why he remains a strong MVP candidate, despite these shortcomings. His ability to control the game at even strength is unparalleled, and it’s a skill that sets him apart from even the greatest players of his era. So, here’s the question: Is Nathan MacKinnon’s even-strength dominance enough to crown him the best player in the world, or does McDavid’s overall impact still reign supreme? Let’s hear your thoughts in the comments—this is one debate that’s far from over.
