The US Dollar's Slight Decline Post Supreme Court Ruling
The US Dollar (USD) experienced a minor dip following the Supreme Court's 6-3 decision, which nullified the Trump administration's IEEPA tariff authority. This initial drop was due to market reactions to the removal of tariff-related price pressures. However, the impact varied across different asset classes.
US yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.3 basis points, as concerns arose about potential tariff revenue reimbursement, which could widen the fiscal deficit. Conversely, the elimination of tariffs is expected to ease some inflationary pressures.
US equities showed a positive trend, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq indices all rising by 0.21%, 0.30%, and 0.40%, respectively.
Among major currencies, the EURUSD pair moved higher, trading above the 1.1765-1.1778 range, indicating a slight buyer preference. The next upside target is the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.1809. If the pair surpasses this level, it could shift control back to the bulls, as it has been below the 100-hour MA since February 12.
The USDJPY pair has rotated lower, testing its 100-day moving average at 154.84, a critical technical level for near-term direction. After briefly crossing above the 100-day MA on Wednesday, the pair traded mostly above it yesterday, except for a failed break during midday. Today, the price slipped below the MA, reaching a low of 154.81, before rebounding to near 155.02. For sellers to gain control, the price must move below and stay below the 100-day MA, with the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 154.956 also in play.
The USDCHF pair has moved lower, returning to the key swing area between 0.77298 and 0.7740. It dipped to 0.7730, just above the lower bound, and is now trading near 0.7736. Sellers aim to maintain momentum by targeting the rising 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages at 0.77225 and 0.77042, respectively. A sustained break below these levels would strengthen the bearish bias.
Additionally, the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.7769 capped the upside earlier, and a sustained move above this level is needed to shift confidence back to buyers. Notably, a similar attempt in January-February failed to gain traction.
The USDCAD pair has moved lower but found support at its 100-hour moving average near 1.3667. Initially above the 100-hour MA on February 12, the pair reached a high of 1.3715 yesterday before entering a consolidation phase. It briefly pushed above the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range but couldn't sustain gains. The low reached 1.3667 yesterday and 1.3669 today, keeping the 100-hour MA in focus as a key near-term support level. A break below this MA would tilt the short-term bias in favor of sellers.
